What is the global competitive market share of the top mRNA manufacturers?
FORMER DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS, BIOTECH MULTINATIONAL
There are many companies in this space and they are quickly changing hands. A significant internal capacity buildout is taking place at Moderna, Pfizer, Sanofi, BioNTech and a number of others (probably comprising half of the total installed capacity). Including both development grade and GMP / commercial manufacturing, some of the top players are ThermoFisher, Danaher via its acquisition of Aldevron (predominantly DNA focused, but strong RNA capabilities), Merck / Sigma (via their acquisition of AmpTec), Catalent, Resilience, and more recently CRL following Vigene and Cognate acquisitions. It is difficult to say the breakdown by capacity of the CDMOs, but of the total market, none likely hold a greater than 20% market share, and the top players listed are likely in the >5% category.
FORMER DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, PHARMACEUTICAL MULTINATIONAL
Estimating the market share is problematic to answer as we first need to define what mRNA includes. The past had shown us that the only working pharmaceutical using mRNA are the COVID vaccine. To the best of my recollection all other treatments (mainly oncology) based on mRNA failed the clinical development. So – if we stay only with the COVID vaccine – I believe that the market will be shared between the major players. In 2 years the market will consider all mRNA COVID vaccines as Gx and thus the competition would turn to be based on pricing. Should a new treatment be approved – the market will change dramatically and the first to bring such treatment will win a major part of the market.
DIRECTOR OF GENOMICS PROGRAM, US-BASED UNIVERSITY
The global mRNA market will continue to expand and likely exceed 10B dollars/yr over the next decade. Major players will include Thermo-Fisher, Regeneron, Pfizer, Moderna and others. Vaccines will be one major use but others, including therapeutics for a variety of diseases, will develop over time. Chemically modified mRNAs that resist degradation will be a large part of the market as will new media for efficient transduction into cells will be important. Transduction media that target to specific cells or tissues will be developed, possibly with humanized monoclonal single-chain antibodies to direct targeting and speed delivery. This area is ripe for development by both existing companies and start-ups.